METHODOLOGY FOR THE PROJECTION OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL DISCHARGES

This paper describes the method that has been developed by the Department of Energy’s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel discharges in regard to their timing, quantities, and characteristics. The projected discharges are appended to the historic discharges and the next five discharges projected by the utilities in the Energy Information Agency’s periodic RW-859 survey. The projections extend these data through the projected lifetime of each nuclear generation plant. The resulting projections of the timing, quantities, and characteristics of spent nuclear fuel discharges are used by the designers of storage and transport casks, the repository and its waste packages. This paper describes the primary assumptions that are made, outlines the principal steps in the projection methodology, and summarizes the results of a recent projection.