AN ENGINEERING ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGE TO RADIOACfiVE MATERIAL TRANSPORT CASKS DUE TO BARGE COLLISIONS

The conditional probability for damage to radioactive material {RAM) transportation casks due to barge collisions was examined using level III methods from risk and reliability theory. For each of 12 500 collision cases examined, a time domain simulator for marine collisions was used to generate data concerning penetration, residual energy and relative velocity at each time step. The simulator developed for this purpose represents an extension of Minorsky's one dimensional collision model to three dimensions {six degrees of freedom). The model also includes the contributions of Jones and Van Mater which account for hull membrane structural resistance up to the point of hull rupture. Twenty-five hundred realistic randomly generated barge collision cases were simulated for each five classifications of US navigable waters {total of 12 500 simulated accidents). Monte Carlo methods were used to develop, from the set of predicted collision state variables, the joint demand processes for the struck barge cargoes. These demand processes were then compared with RAM cask capabilities in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of RAM cask damage given a collision in a specified classification of navigable waters.