APPLICATION OF DECISION-AIDING TECHNIQUES TO TRANSPORTATION ROUTES

This paper discusses the application of the techniques of multi-attribute decision analysis to the problem of selection of routes for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. In particular, the paper develops a non-quantitative, semi-intuitive application of the quantitative method of Keeney and Raiffa. The need for a non-quantitative application became evident in work with state agencies, citizens’ groups, and other non-Federal stakeholders. These groups wanted to help select transportation routes for spent nuclear fuel through their communities and states, had no particularly organized method for selecting criteria on which to base such selections, and tended to mistrust and dismiss quantitative decision aiding methods. The criteria being considered included minimizing trip length, minimizing the likelihood of accidents, minimizing large cities transited by the shipments, avoiding tribal lands, and generally avoiding certain locations. The paper presents a simplified quantitative decision-aiding method using examples from the TRAGIS routing code, with transportation risk assessed using the program and code RADTRAN. A non-quantitative, but not particularly intuitive result is developed from the quantitative method.