An Analysis of Recent Ship Collisions

Ship collision data were compiled and analyzed as part of a U.S. Department of Energy project (SeaRAM) to characterize the risk of shipping radioactive materials by waterborne modes of transportation. The most significant results show that waterborne transport has the potential of being a very safe method of transporting nuclear materials. The work sought to identify means of estimating the risk associated with specific transportation campaigns. It has been determined that the risk of collision is directly related to activity in congested areas, such as entering and exiting ports or traversing narrow straits. Further, the risk of fire is proportional to the time spent at sea- and not to the time traversing congested areas as is the case with collisions. Therefore, we believe that the probability of a fire is appropriately modeled as a constant multiplied by the time a trip takes. There is little evidence in the data examined to warrant more complicated models based on assigning specific probabilities to the specific geographic areas a route traverses. Based on these initial results, it should be possible to build a generic model for assessing the risk of waterborne transport of radioactive material. By assigning the risk of collisions to the few small regions of the world's waterways where accidents actually occur with any frequency, it will be possible to calculate highly accurate estimates of probabilities of accidents associated with a specific route. Using the data, it would then be possible to develop a method to satisfy shipping requirements for specific campaigns.