Advancement of Dynamic Assessment Methodologies for Transportation Security

The combination of modeling and simulation (Mod/Sim) tools with dynamic assessment techniques continues to yield new insights within other areas of nuclear security. In response, a novel approach for transportation security could consider the integration of current assessment techniques with state-of-the-art Mod/Sim capabilities. Previous efforts at Sandia National Laboratories, such as the integration of safety, security, and safeguards for spent nuclear fuel transportation, considered the linking of various simulation tools with a single dynamic assessment technique. In support of more rigorous analysis capable of capturing the dynamism and complexity of transportation security issues, there is a need to develop novel dynamic assessment approaches. For example, linking aspects of various risk-informed approaches, such as system theoretic process analysis with dynamic event/fault tree analysis could enhance current transportation security assessment techniques. In order accurately capture as comprehensive a picture of “realistic” nuclear transportation security challenges as possible, this effort developed a hypothetical case description that is representative, illustrative, and indicative of “real” characteristics for a “real” shipping campaign—including identifying various attributes related to transportation security. This approach allows the use of realistic data sets without using “real” data or identifying “real” vulnerabilities, hazards, or geopolitically embarrassing shortcomings. More specifically, this hypothetical case description (and associated set of scenarios of concern) for transportation security was reviewed and validated by an in internal panel of subject matter experts. The resulting data from this hypothetical case study (i.e., collection of scenarios) were the foundation for identifying the requirements for dynamic risk assessment approaches for transportation security. This paper summarizes the conceptual background for integrating multiple analysis techniques under a risk-informed, systems-theoretic framework. Using these insights, the paper then describes dynamic assessment techniques for nuclear transportation security. Then, the data from the hypothetical case (and associated scenarios) are evaluated to demonstrate the benefits of such dynamic assessment approaches. These arguments suggest that a dynamic assessment approach can better capture the complexity and dynamism experienced in nuclear transportation security—including the ability to reprioritize, optimize, and redesign transportation-related decisions to balance budgetary, geopolitical, and technical challenges. (SAND2018-14025A)