How will nuclear cooperation in the Middle East evolve through 2050? How will climate change affect this dynamic? This paper previews a mixed method approach to answering these questions, beginning with regional SME interviews to identify dynamics around energy security, rivalry, and regional stability. In the next phase of our work, we invited a small group of experts to generate four scenarios related to climate change and the spread of commercial nuclear technology in the Middle East and North Africa using scenario generation techniques. Developing these scenarios provides a structured, analytical way of illustrating the different possible roles of nuclear power may play in the event of regional energy transition and increased demand in resources. In future iterations of this research the authors will use these scenarios to help forecast the future of regional nuclear cooperation. As a result of this research, the authors will be able to discern plausible groupings of states that can cooperate in the nuclear dimension, including on nonproliferation.
Year
2024
Abstract