At the COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow, the United States pledged to cut its emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by the end of this decade. The United States and other countries around the world have also pledged to hit net zero emissions by 2050. Achieving these goals will require a rethinking of many aspects of our energy systems and infrastructure.
One of the assumptions that underlies the ability of the global community to reach these emissions targets is that nuclear energy will play an increased role in the mix of available energy sources. As states decarbonize their electrical grids, nuclear energy will play a critical part as a baseload energy source to balance increased intermittent generation capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that for states to meet the two degrees Celsius target determined by the 2015 Paris Agreement, nuclear generation should account for seventeen percent of global electricity generation by 2050. That would require more than doubling the world’s nuclear energy capacity over the next twenty years.
Expanding nuclear energy at this scale raises important questions for the nonproliferation community: what new nonproliferation risks will be posed by nuclear expansion in states with existing nuclear energy infrastructure, and which newcomer states will seek out nuclear energy? How can the nonproliferation regime respond through technology, policy, and other solutions? Climate change also presents challenges and opportunities for nuclear technology and the existing nonproliferation regime. For example, what effect will climate change have on existing nuclear power sources, their security, and the nonproliferation regime? How can nonproliferation tools and technologies support climate science and research? This panel explored these questions, and more broadly, the intersections between climate change, expanding nuclear energy, and nonproliferation.