Estimation Of Uranium Production In North Korea Through Satellite Image Analysis

In the early 1990s, South and North Korea made a Joint Declaration of Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Nevertheless, North Korea has continued to develop nuclear weapons. According to 38North(North Korean Intelligence Project in the United States), in March 2021, 38North discovered signs of restarting North Korean nuclear facilities through satellite imagery. North Korea has nuclear material through various nuclear facilities and uses them for nuclear weapons, but does not disclose it to the international community. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of nuclear material in North Korea for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. In this study, the uranium production at the Pyeongsan Mine that has a lot of uranium reserves was estimated by applying the satellite image analysis method. The contaminated area of ​​mill tailings ponds that collect tailing after the uranium ore process among the Pyeongsan mine nuclear facilities was analyzed. To calculate the amount of uranium mill tailings, the ponds depth was assumed based on statistical data of lakes and reservoirs on the in Korea. In addition, the Uranium grade was estimated by applying a range of 0.15 to 0.9% for comparison with the results of similar research methods. As a result of the calculation useing the above conditions, the production amount of uranium (U3O8) was estimated to be about 7 ~ 497 ton. This result is low compared to about 273 to 886 tons estimated by James Martin's research team in the United States (ESRADA methodology using ore facilites scale) and about 187 to 786 tons estimated by the Nautilus research team (Top-down methodology). The above two research institutes evaluated conservatively by assuming the maximum size and maximum operation rate of ore facilites(CCDs). The reason that the uranium production in this study was underestimated compared to the other two studies was that the depth of the pond was used as the statistics. The results of this study can be used as basic data for estimating the production of enriched uranium or Pu in North Korea.