Characterization and Sensitivity Analysis for the Development of Synthetic Nuclear Marine-Urban Debris

No nuclear weapon has ever been detonated in a United States city. However, this also means the nuclear forensic community has no actual debris from which to develop analytical methods for source attribution, making the development of synthetic nuclear debris a vital undertaking. Nevertheless, the development of marine-urban debris presents an unusual challenge because unlike soil and urban structures that remain compositionally consistent, the elemental composition of harbor and port waters fluctuates considerably due to natural phenomenon and human activity. Additionally, marine vessel composition and cargo can vary dramatically. While early US nuclear tests were carried out in shallow-water coastal areas, they did not represent the marine-urban environments of large cities. Given these technical complexities, it is critical to understand the environmental variations in order to develop realistic synthetic nuclear marine-urban debris. This project seeks to build a robust model for the New York/New Jersey harbor that statistically defines its elemental composition for future neutronic and debris formation analysis. Analysis of these neutronic and fractionation effects will support the development of unique surrogate debris samples that mimic the elemental content of actual nuclear debris from a marine-urban detonation. These samples can then be utilized for the development of the analytical methods for post-det analysis and attribution.