ANALYZING THE REPROCESSING DECISION: PLUTONIUM RECYCLE AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION*

The United States decision to defer indefinitely the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel is examined in this paper. Bayesian decision analysis is applied to develop a rational framework for the assessment of alternatives. Benefits and costs for each alternative are evaluated and compared in dollar terms to determine the optimal decision. A fuel cycle simula- tion model is constructed to assess the economic value of repro- cessing light water reactor (LWR) spent fuel and recycling Plutonium. In addition, a dynamic fuel substitution model is used to estimate the economic effects of the reprocessing decision's influence on the introduction date of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). The analysis of benefits and costs is extended to include the social costs due to technological risks, such as accident risk, nuclear theft and/or sabotage, and international nuclear proliferation. These social costs are expressed in dollar terms for compar- ison with the conventional economic values.