USING PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT TO DERIVE FINANCIAL ASSURANCE COVERAGE LEVELS: THE CASE OF LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE TRANSPORTATION

The paper presents a risk assessment methodology to characterize the potential costs associated with transportation of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW). An application of this methodology Is also provided for illustration. % The risk assessment uses as inputs characterizations of (1) waste shipments by type of vehicle; and (2) environmental settings by generic route. The risk assessment analyzes potential events (e.g., small accident enroute) and their consequences (e.g., dispersion of released materials and subsequent human exposure) for each transport configuration (i.e., combination of vehicle type and generic route). Finally, the risk assessment estimates the probability and magnitude of corrective action costs (e.g., for cleanup of property and the environment) and third-party compensation costs (e.g., for bodily injury and property damage) attached to the consequences of each event. These estimates are then combined with the estimates of the probability of each event to construct a cost curve for corrective action costs and third-party compensation costs. Using these cost curves, financial assurance coverage levels can be derived by specifying a not-to-be - exceeded likelihood that potential costs would exceed the coverage amount.