Some Effects of False Positives

One of the problems of making safeguards decisions based on material balance accounting or shipper-receiver differences is that there is always an unavoidable possibility that chance errors of measurement alone will lead to positive conclusions. This problem becomes particularly acute when we consider system designs or inspection strategies involving a multiplicity of individual decisions. The most important conclusion is that strategies based on cumulative indices, either over time or facilities, are likely to be less costly and more effective against certain alternatives than those based on more frequent individual decisions. While the timeliness implied by the latter is desirable, the illusion of effectiveness based on frequency alone should be avoided.