THE STATISTICS OF ERROR PROPAGATION AT NLO, INC.

Starting in March, 1982, the DOE Office of Safeguards and Security sponsored an error propagation exercise at the Feed Materials Production Center in Fernald, Ohio (NLO, Inc.). This exercise was planned as a field demonstration of the utilization of error propagation methodology to meet the control limit requirements of DOE Order 5630.2. This paper reports on the statistical methodology proposed for this exercise. The methodology combines elements of Jaech (1973) with statistical theory for estimating variance components using random effects ANOVA models, and with the AMASS concepts of bias correction, process error, static inventory,\" and strata. Thus, the methodology is a synthesis of concepts from three major sources - Jaech, statistical theory, and AMASS.