IS THERE IS OR IS THERE AIN'T DIVERSION? A CHANCE VIEW FROM THE JURY BOX

A safeguards tenet is that severe criminal penalties, e.g., those posed by the Atomic Energy Act (as much as life imprisonment) are a deterrent against diversion. Such penalties can be imposed only in a court of law -- by a judge after a trial by jury. The probability of conviction is examined conceptually as a function of appearance of guilt, jury size, criteria for verdicts and Supreme Court rulings for protecting the innocent. The U.K. jury system, the IAEA sanction procedure and adjudicatory decisions are visited similarly. High safeguards performance levels are necessary to assure the apprehension and conviction of diverters.