PROJECTED GROWTH IN THE USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY UNDER INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000

The nuclear activities under international safeguards are expected to grow significantly through the year 2000, in spite of some public perception that recent events have significantly slowed down nuclear development. The growth projected for both item and bulk handling facilities results from increases in the number of installations, increased capacity of existing and new facilities, and the total amount of nuclear material being processed. The growth occurs in primarily two types of facilities: light water reactors (LWRs) which will increase in number at the rate of about three percent per year, three new large bulk handling facilities processing direct-use nuclear material which will come under safeguards during this period. Also, a few research reactors, separate storage facilities, etc. will come under international safeguards. Both the number of countries having highly developed nuclear fuel cycles and the amount of plutonium being used as mixed oxide fuel continues to increase. This projected growth in the use of nuclear energy will significantly impact the resource requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).