Reflections on Chernobyl

Fifteen years have passed since I first alluded to nuclear energy as a Faustian bargain: mankind, in opting for nuclear energy must pay the price of extraordinary technical vigilance for the energy he derives from nuclear fission if he is to avoid serious trouble. At the time, I could not say exactly what degree of technical vigilance would be required, nor exactly what the consequences of a lapse in vigilance would be. As long as nuclear energy was small and unimportant, as it was in 1971, the likelihood of having to pay up on our bargain would be small; but as the number of reactors grew, as nuclear energy became large and very important, the likelihood, and therefore the frequency, of accidents would increase. Experience would then enable us to judge, rather than speculate on, the risk fission imposed on society.