A Scheme for Randomized Inspections

We describe a general randomized inspection scheme that satisfies initially stipulated quantitative requirements on detection probabilities and timeliness and at the same time makes more efficient use of inspection resources. The scheme reduces intrusiveness into the operations of the inspected plant and improves the effectiveness of the inspection by the unpredictability and the increased intensity of the inspections. The same formalism is applicable to sequential inspections, inspections by strata, and inspections of facilities over a large complex, such as a country. The description has been set in the context of IAEA safeguards, where preliminary estimates show that appreciable improvements couldbe made. However, the methodology is applicable to a much wider class of inspections.