Measures for Increasing IAEA Safeguards Effectiveness

The effectiveness of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards depends not only on the quality of IAEA inspection and independent verification of declared nuclear material and facility use, but also on the perception of and reaction to IAEA safeguards by the nations who make up the international community. Because perceptions and reactions often involve nontechnical as well as technical factors, it has proven difficult to describe IAEA safeguards effectiveness in quantitative technical terms. This study uses a flow diagram to examine how IAEA inspections and the resulting verification statements lead to the main political objectives of IAEA safeguards, assurance and deterrence. Based on this approach, a figure of merit called the IAEA safeguards effectiveness ratio is defined, and measures for increasing IAEA safeguards effectiveness are identified and discussed.