value-impact Analysis for Material control and Accounting Alternatives

Year
1981
Author(s)
R.A. Al-Ayat - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
R.A. Al-Ayat - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Bruce R. Judd - Applied Decision Analysis, Inc.
Bruce R. Judd - Applied Decision Analysis, Inc.
Willard D. Altman - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Willard D. Altman - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Abstract
This paper describes the results of applying the Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a tool developed under the auspices of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), to provide the NRC with value-impact analysis for the proposed Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) Upgrade Rule for Category I fuel facilities. Our value-impact analysis using the ASM quantifies the values of upgraded safeguards using several measures of MC&A performance, including probabilities of and expected times to receive and to resolve alarms from the MC&A system. Safeguards impacts are quantified in terms of annualized cost to facility operators. The analysis shows that a combination of design and procedural changes is needed to meet the NRC's performance objectives, such as having a 90 percent probability of receiving an MC&A alarm within 24 hours of an attempt by insiders to divert a large quantity of SNM. Although we emphasize here the use of the ASM for performing value-impact analysis, the ASM is a potentially valuable tool for evaluating new or proposed license conditions as well as an inspection tool both under the current MC&A requirements and proposed future performance oriented requirements.