Using Open-Source Tender Data to Monitor for Early Nuclear Fuel Cycle Capability Build-Up

This project examined the efficacy of using open-source tender data to support systematic monitoring for and discovery of early indications of development of NFC capabilities. Tenders refer to government solicitations for bids, quotations, and proposals for goods, technologies, and services. Our project consisted of several stages. First, we identified relevant information sources to establish, inter alia, the extent to which this data stream offers global coverage, and how the quality and accessibility/usability of the data varies among geographical regions. We evaluated the quality, accessibility, and usability of the data sources we identified. We then explored the data for meaningful signals, i.e., nuclear fuel cycle and safeguards-relevant information contained in tender announcements. We conclude that open-source tender data is a source of safeguards-relevant information, including on occasion information that is unique or could be the earliest indication of a safeguards-relevant activity. Tender databases could complement other sources of safeguards-relevant information and provide another data point for IAEA analysts to use in conducting evaluations of the consistency, correctness, and completeness of all available information on a given site or activity or in monitoring the status of a location or entity of interest.