SYSTEMS STUDIES FOR NUCLEAR MATERIALS SAFEGUARDS

Systems studies are now so widely performed in government and business that it seems at first sight unnecessary to define the meaning of the term here. There is, however, some point in doing so, because the meaning varies from one application to another. In our usage, systems studies are those analytical studies performed for the defining of goals, the determination of ways by which these goals might be achieved, estimation of the effectiveness of these methods, determination of the strategies for implementing the methods, and estimation of costs. These components of the systems studies are shown in Table I. The determination of alternate methods and strategies, and the effectiveness and costs of these, provide the basis for optimizing the methods of achieving a defined goal. In principle, the maximum effectiveness can be sought for a given cost, or the minimum cost can be found for a given effectiveness. In all studies of this kind, the definition of effectiveness is crucial. Measurement of effectiveness by different methods can lead to quite different conclusions as regards the optimum. Another difficulty in systems studies of this kind is produced by the need to perform the analysis within a specified political context. For instance, certain potential strategies might in fact be forbidden for political reasons. The effects of the political considerations appear as constraints on the strategy. The most obvious constraint is financial. Regardless of how important the goal may seem to be, and how many people feel this importance, people will not be willing to spend an indefinite amount of money to achieve it. They will insist on lowering the goals, instead. In nuclear materials safeguards, we will simply have to provide the best that wo can for the amount of money that will be made available.