SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACH TO NUCLEAR RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE 3RD NUCLEAR AGE

 The 3rd Nuclear Age is an emerging geopolitical reality in which multiple nuclear armed global powers compete for power and influence among an increasingly balkanized globalization landscape posing challenges to the traditional instruments used to combat the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials. In general, such national instruments succeed via two different logical paths. The first emphasizes coercion—either using retaliatory potential (e.g., deterrence) or targeted and intentional actions (e.g., counterproliferation)—to dissuade or prevent the pursuit of nuclear weapons or materials. The second highlights collaboration—using enhanced access to peaceful energy uses (e.g., nonproliferation) or U.S.-led joint technical activities to eliminate WMD programs (e.g., cooperative threat reduction)—as the mechanism for preventing or controlling the spread of nuclear weapons or materials. The historical context of these national instruments for nuclear risk management suggests a need to develop optimized mitigation among dynamic and interdependent relationships to prevent nuclear dangers. In response, the Cooperative Monitoring Center at Sandia National Laboratories initiated a study to evaluate these nuclear risk management dynamics from a systems-based solution perspective. Such a perspective allows for a focus on how these national instruments relate to one another—including the range of dynamic interactions between technologies, policies, and activities aimed at combatting the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials – to balance against potential structural changes in the international system.