STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON SHORT NOTICE RANDOM INSPECTIONS IN LOW ENRICHED URANIUM FABRICATION PLANTS

Year
1997
Author(s)
W. Gmelin, - European Commissionm Euratom Safeguards Directorate
K. Martin - Euratom Safeguards Directorate
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to discuss from the statistical point of view whether short notice random inspections (SNRIs) can enhance effectiveness and efficiency of safeguarding the flow in Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Fuel Fabrication Plants compared to the present inspection scheme. The problematic of SNRIs is explained by means of the formula for the non detection probability b = (1-p) , where p is the probability of inclusion in the sample. A procedure is described how the residence time of items could be derived through a Logit Analysis. The impact of items with different inclusion probabilities on the operator-inspector difference statistic (D statistic) and its variance is discussed. The question what to do in case of anomalies, detected during SNRIs, is also briefly discussed in this paper.