THE ROLE OF ASSURANCE IN MATERIAL SAFEGUARDS

The role of assurance in materials safeguards has not been as clearly defined or emphasized as much as other safeguards measures. An effective assurance program provides a safeguards element not found in other safeguards measures; namely, that the physical protection and material control systems have been effective. This paper describes a quantitative assessment plan which can demonstrate such effectiveness. The major difficulties with evaluating safeguards measures are (1) defining a realistic goal for the assessment activities and (2) obtaining the required data to quantify the results. It is much easier to assess for compliance with requirements than it is to evaluate systems' effectiveness and to express the results in a quantitative assurance statement. Statistical techniques are available to quantify many of the assessment activities. They require the concept of protecting against the diversion of a prescribed quantity of material, i.e., of goal quantity. Because of the difficulties associated with assessment, a number of strategies are employed depending on the specific situation. This results in a structured approach to assessment which emphasizes evaluating all of the strata from which diversion by an adversary is possible. Both the flow components as well as the more traditional inventory components are included because diversion from both strata classifications can occur. This paper summarizes the methodology and use of various strategies in a structural approach to assessment, which allows for quantifying the results. It also describes a computer code which enables rapid development of an assessment plan based on both the operation status at the time of the assessment and the material transfers since the previous evaluation. The application and limitations of the methodology are also presented.