RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES AS PRESENTED IN THE DOSE STANDARD, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS FOR AIRCRAFT CRASH INTO HAZARDOUS FACILITIES

Conditional probability, Bayes' Rule, and the concept of a partition underlie the DOE instructions for calculating the risk to hazardous materials storage facilities form an aircraft accident. Step by step procedures were published in to DOE Standard 3014-96, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities (Oct 1996). While using this guidance for accident modeling at the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, we found the need to develop for ourselves a clear understanding of fundamental concepts. This helped make the instructions in the Standard transparent to us. We believe the statistical understanding also provides a broader and flexible framework for assessing risk for other events with multiple or complex causes and for rare events which are end product of a chain of prior occurrences. In fact, virtually any risk situation can be accurately modeled with these three tools, which are seldom presented in a manner emphasizing their usefulness to scientists and engineers. We explain statistical origin of the risk calculation procedure in the Standard and point out how it can be adapted to many practical risk and risk assessment situations.