Key results from the 2023/2024 edition of the Peddling Peril Index (PPI), a ranking of countries’ strategic trade controls, are presented. The Peddling Peril Index for 2023/2024 is the fourth edition in a biennial series collecting qualitative and quantitative data in five areas of strategic trade controls: International Commitment, Legislation, Ability to Monitor and Detect Strategic Trade, Ability to Prevent Proliferation Financing, and Adequacy of Enforcement. The underlying data contain information on 200 countries across 104 indicators, and different methods of presenting and analyzing the data are discussed, including statistical analysis and case studies. The 2023/2024 data are compared to previous PPI editions to identify areas of strategic trade controls that have improved and those that are lagging. Further, examples of evaluating the countries in groups are included, such as grouping countries by supply potential of WMD-related items and technology, to acknowledge and define different needs for export control systems across countries. A subset of evaluated countries includes those that have publicly proposed, planned, or started the construction of their first nuclear power plant. These countries need robust export controls that protect newly gained nuclear know-how, designs, technology, and materials from unauthorized transfers or exports. But what levels of export controls are needed in countries without current single or dual-use supply potential or nuclear ambitions? The paper discusses the need for guidance to ensure that all countries have at least a minimal strategic trade control system, including the need for an international standard. The PPI introduces key elements of such a standard and its possible form as envisioned under a G7 initiative, as well as justifications for it, including United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004).
Year
2024
Abstract