PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS: Its Possible Use in Safeguards Problems

Year
1976
Author(s)
Norman C. Rasmussen - Massachusetts Insititute of Technology
Abstract
The recently completed Reactor Safety Study (RSS) which resulted in the WASH-1400 report has stimulated considerable interest in the use of this methodology as a possible way of assessing the risk involved in other parts of the nuclear fuel cycle as well as other societal activities. This paper briefly reviews the RSS methodology and discusses its possible application to the safeguards problem. For the reasons discussed herein, the paper concludes that there are possible applications of these methodologies for the development of effective safeguards. However, an overall quantitative risk assessment of the safeguards issues is at present beyond the capability of the methodology.