Performance Targets for IAEA Detection of Undeclared Nuclear Activities

LLNL-ABS-832154 In States with comprehensive safeguards agreements, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) implements safeguards activities intended to cover all plausible paths by which nuclear material suitable for use in a nuclear explosive device could be acquired. To guard against acquisition paths that would rely in part on the use of clandestine nuclear facilities, the IAEA conducts structured assessments of States’ nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) and related technical capabilities, plans and conducts Headquarters based and field activities to look for indications of undeclared nuclear activities, and takes appropriate actions to investigate and resolve detected indications. As part of its ongoing State Level Approach Improvement Project (SLAIP), the IAEA has been developing standardized guidance for assessing States’ technical capabilities, for prioritizing coverage of acquisition path steps, and for planning safeguards activities consistent with those priorities. With respect to detection of undeclared nuclear activities, IAEA presentations to date1 suggest that performance targets would be expressed in terms of the frequency of particular headquarters-based analyses and, where possible, field activities such as complementary access under the additional protocol. Drawing on case studies of several fictional States of various NFC capability level, both with and without an additional protocol, this paper illustrates a framework for prioritizing undeclared-facility-detection safeguards objectives, for choosing the frequency, depth, and focus of various headquarters activities (ranging from ongoing routine information collection and analysis and to more targeted analyses) and field activities, and for prioritizing the follow-up of detected indications of possible undeclared activities. LLNL-ABS-832154 This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory under contract DE?AC52?07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC 1 See, for example, Kory Sylvester, IAEA, “Experience Gained in the State Level Approach Improvement Project,” presentation for INMM & ESARDA Joint Annual Meeting, August 2021