Optimal State Estimation Theory Applied to Safeguards Accounting

This paper presents a unified theory for the application of modern state estimation techniques to nuclear material accountability. First a summary of the current MUF/LEMUF approach is detailed. It is shown that when inventory measurement error is large in comparison to transfer measurement error, improved estimates of the losses can be achieved using the cummulative summation technique. However, the optimal estimator is shown to be the Kalman filter. An enhancement of the retrospective estimation of losses can be achieved using linear smoothing. State space models are developed for a mixed oxide fuel fabrication facility and examples are presented.