MINIMUM RISK TRIGGER INDICES

A viable safeguards system includes among other things the development and use of indices which trigger various courses of action. The usual limit of error calculation provides such an index. The classical approach is one of constructing tests which, under certain assumptions, make the likelihood of a false alarm small. Of concern also is the test's failure to indicate a loss (diversion) when in fact one has occurred. Since false alarms are usually costly and losses both costly and of extreme strategic significance, there remains the task of balancing the probability of false alarm and its consequences against the probability of undetected loss and its consequences. The application of other than classical hypothesis testing procedures is considered in this paper. Using various consequence models, trigger indices are derived which have certain optimum properties. Application of the techniques would enhance the material control function.