Facilitating International Cooperation Through A Metrics Framework For Comparative Assessment Of Nuclear Arms Control Verification Methods

Many technical challenges remain for verifying future nuclear arms control agreements, particularly those involving accounting and potential dismantlement of individual warheads. These include (but are not limited to) confirming the authenticity of accountable items, monitoring disposition and chain of custody, confirming dismantlement, and protecting sensitive information throughout. The state of international cooperation and technical exchange on addressing these challenges is fragmented, with disparate initiatives and research projects across government, academia, and international organizations. While these efforts have yielded many valuable contributions, the community of practice is notably lacking in consensus performance metrics for rigorously and systematically assessing the comparative advantages or disadvantages of alternative technologies and approaches. To draw a metaphor, there is no “miles per gallon” benchmark against which researchers can assess the degree to which any single technology, or set of technologies, is advancing progress toward broader verification goals and end states. Besides contributing to a lack of continuity across research agendas, this absence of metrics is also a barrier to achieving common understandings and objectives among international partners whose perspectives may be very different owing to unique political and cultural contexts; it is also a problem for policymakers as they weigh different verification options in arms control negotiations and set future R&D priorities. This paper identifies fundamental requirements and parameters of a systems framework for deriving verification performance metrics, oriented explicitly toward facilitating international dialog and technical exchange. It also reviews existing and proposed verification assessment frameworks against these requirements, highlighting key strengths/weaknesses and lessons learned. Finally, recommendations for a path forward on further development, implementation, and socialization are proposed.