ESTIMATION OF THE OUTCOME OF OVERT ADVERSARY ACTIONS USING SIMULATION

Year
1977
Author(s)
L. Harris, Jr. - Science Applications Inc.
C. Rindfleisch - Science Applications, Inc.
B.G. Hartenau - Science Applications, Inc.
Abstract
A batched, aggregate, network simulation method for estimating the outcome of overt adversary actions is under development. Aggregate models are used to represent delay mechanisms and engagements. The engagement model includes disengagement criteria. The network includes multiple action lines for adversary, guard, and off-site response forces. Simulation results include the material containment probability and time distributions for material containment by the guard and/or offsite response forces and for material removal by an adversary force. A simulation example is given.