Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation (EnSURE)

Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation (EnSURE) is a new approach being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for determining and mitigating risk. The EnSURE approach is based on the risk equation, which can be defined by the following equation: R = ( PA ) ( 1- PE ) ( C ) Where R is risk, PA is the likelihood of attack, PE is the system effectiveness and C is the consequence. EnSURE considers each of the components of risk to help in assessing surety (e.g. security, safety, environmental) and providing for the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. EnSURE is intended to help in evaluating and reducing the risk from either man-caused or natural events. It will help the decision-makers identify possible targets, evaluate the consequences of an event, assess the risk based on the threat and the existing conditions and then help in the application of mitigating measures. EnSURE is in the development stages. It builds on existing and ongoing development activities at Sandia, as well as the considerable work done in the fields of consequence analysis, risk analysis and intelligence. The components of EnSure include consequences, constraints, threat, target/goal identification, facility/process characterization, evaluation and analysis, system improvement, and decision making. This paper will provide a brief description of EnSURE.