Year
1985
Abstract
A simplified mathematical model has been developed to provide conservative estimates of radioactive and/or chemical dispersal consequences. The model is useful in assessing physical security protection needs and determining classification levels for information on DOE facilities. Sabotage scenarios for dispersals were developed based on public information, such as safety analysis reports and environmental impact statements for facilities of interest. The dispersal mechanisms considered included criticality incidents, explosive methods, pyrotechnics, lofting, etc. The technical knowledge required by a malevolent group intent upon causing dispersal includes the attack objective information, (target, source-consequences correlation and propagation characteristics) as well as attack capability information (physical security, dispersal know-how and engineered safety and protection features). Physical protection measures, which could protect materials via deterrence, detection, delay and apprehension, were suggested, along with classification techniques which could protect against dispersal by denying access to information critical to the success of sabotage.