Credibility Analysis of Diversion scenarios and Their impact on the Design of Reprocessing Facilities

One of the problems arising in the application of containment/surveillance techniques to large reprocessing plants is the expected multitude of diversion possibilities. To overcome this difficulty a decision tree analysis is proposed in this paper to evaluate the credibility of diversion scenarios. Such assessments will provide guidelines for the design of a plant in order to reduce the number of credible diversion scenarios. Examples are given.