Analytical Methods in Safeguards for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization (CVID) of North Korea

Since U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un had their meeting in June 2018, in Singapore, the Trump administration has negotiated the Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization (CVID) of Democratic People’s Republic Korea’s (DPRK) or North Korea’s (NK) nuclear program. For the successful agreement, we essentially should: a) identify the existing nuclear programs and facilities in North Korea, b) understand the signals, through analytical methods, from their nuclear facility operations, and c) suggest feasible scenarios to cope with NK’s responses accordingly. In this study, the history and status (locations, types, and capabilities of facilities) of NK’s nuclear program are introduced for background. Additionally, analytical methods are presented on how to distinguish radiological and seismic signals between nuclear plant operation and weapon testing (offshore, ground detonation). As a conclusion, success and failure scenarios to NK’s CVID are discussed based on the history of other denuclearization processes and current protocol. Moreover, the role of the IAEA is suggested to accentuate the significance of IAEA’s participation and intervention rather than the interrelation only between the US and NK for the effective CVID of the nuclear program.