Acquisition Pathway Analysis using Fuel Cycle Simulators

As part of a comprehensive safeguards evaluation, Acquisition Path Analysis (APA) of a State provides a method to “analyze the plausible paths by which, from a technical point of view, nuclear material suitable for use in a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device could be acquired” APA is part of an effort by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of international safeguards by considering each State as a whole and not just a collection of individual facilities.Nuclear fuel cycle simulators (FCS) codes are fundamentally tools to track material as it undergoes chemical and nuclear changes and moves between facilities in a nuclear fuel cycle. The ability to model facilities at high fidelity creates the opportunity to study the material throughput in an individual facility, for a potential acquisition path, or for a full set of nuclear facilities mimicking a State. This throughput tracking can also be coupled with the ability to study dynamic scenarios where facilities may be opening, retiring, or ramping up (down) in production. The use of FCS tools has the ability to add in-depth modeling capability to APA and inform the continued effort to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of international safeguards.