TAXONOMY OF POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS REGIMES*

Year
1994
Author(s)
James Lemley - Brookhaven National Laboratory
Jack Allentuck - Brookhaven National Laboratory
Abstract
Since the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) search for the components of Iraq's nuclear weapons program under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council, a consensus for enhancing, strengthening or expanding the scope of international safeguards has developed. Some of the enhanced safeguards concepts which have been suggested include the following: short-notice, challenge, and random inspections; effluent monitoring in onsite, near site, and fly-by modes; local and wide-area environmental monitoring; and utilization of data from space-platform sensors. Potential safeguards regimes can be classified according to the functional and technical criteria which would be necessary for implementation of various enhanced safeguards concepts. While the nature of the regime which will emerge cannot be predicted, the classification of possible regimes according to major characteristics can be useful for identifying functional criteria and implementation challenges, focusing development efforts on the functional criteria, and planning for efficient use of safeguards resources. Precedents established in previously negotiated treaties - the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, START, and Open Skies - are examined with regard to enhancement of the international safeguards regime for nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Bilateral, multilateral and regional integration of enhanced safeguards elements is considered.