A Methodology for the Transfer of Probabilities between Accident Severity Categories*

Evaluation of the radiological risks of accidents involving vehicles transporting radioactive materials requires consideration of both accident probability and consequences. The probability that an accident will occur may be estimated from historical accident data for the given mode of transport. In addition to an overall accident rate, information regarding accident severity and the resulting package environments across the range of all credible accidents is needed to determine the potential for a release of radioactive material from the package or for an increase in direct radiation from the package caused by damage to packaging shielding. This information is usually obtained from a variety of sources such as historical data, experimental data, analyses of accident and package environments, and expert opinion. The consequences of an accident depend on a number of factors including the type, quantity, and physical form of radioactive material being transported; the response of the package to accident environments; the fraction of material released from the package; and the dispersion of any released material.