AN SNM CUTOFF REGIME AND THE TREATY ON OPEN SKIES TECHNOLOGY

The Treaty on Open Skies has very specific requirements as a confidence building measure, but it could also serve as a component of an SNM Cutoff monitoring strategy. The participants to the Treaty are European countries, the United States, and Canada and would have to be extended to include other than the present signatories if it were to be used in a worldwide SNM verification Cutoff role. The major nuclear powers with the exception of China are signatories to the Treaty and the inclusion of other member states will only be considered once entry into force has started. The technology and data sharing provisions of the Treaty have defined the airborne sensor performance specifications. Therefore, the Treaty allowed sensor technology may not be adequate for the purposes of monitoring an SNM Cutoff regime. New sensors and sensor performance levels to adequately monitor an SNM Cutoff regime may be proposed only after entry into force of the Treaty on Open Skies. The utility of an aerial inspection component to the monitoring strategy for an SNM Cutoff regime would best be evaluated with field trials using realistic scenarios. This would allow the testing of synergism among other components of an overall monitoring strategy and would lend insight into the appropriate sensor technology to be recommended for future implementation.