An Approach For Consequences Evaluation and an Application to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The results of the consequences evaluation are used to establish the basis for a graded protection philosophy and for setting upgrades priorities. Consequences from adversary acts can involve public health and safety, national security, the environment, financial costs, ability to maintain production and credibility. We have developed a multiattribute utility approach that systematically combines disparate consequences into a single measure, and provides a systematic method for quantifying consequences. The approach includes a formal review for consistency, provides traceability, and allows for explicitly defining scenarios and their corresponding consequence estimates. In developing this approach, our work has focused on the Department of Energy's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). An attack on SPR facilities could have financial costs and environmental impact as well as impact on the SPR's mission to reduce the impact of disruptions in petroleum supplies and to carry out the United States' obligations under the International Energy Program. We present the overall approach and share sample results and insights gained in applying it to the SPR. We also address how the approach can be generalized to other applications.