STUDY OF NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION MEASURES WITH A RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH

Policies for assuring the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons (hereinafter referred to as \"nuclear nonproliferation\") are actualized through a broad range of countermeasures. While concerned nations have actually implemented several of the various legal, institutional, technological and political countermeasures after long years of deliberation and striving for international consensus, differences of opinion still exist among nations, and debate continues. At the same time, with the end of the Cold War it is hoped that a comprehensive and effective nuclear nonproliferation structure capable of assuring broader support and understanding among the nations of the world will be established, and that the peaceful, stable use of nuclear energy under such a system is promoted. Therefore, this paper will comprehensively analyse the risk of nuclear weapons ever being used again; assess the basic characteristics of various risk factors and discuss the positioning of various nuclear nonproliferation measures to reduce these risk factors. The analytic methods presented herein are expected to become the basis of more detailed, extensive analysis and assessment.