ENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION: WHAT IS TO BE GAINED FROM QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES OF RISK UNCERTAINTY?

Quantitative risk predictions are uncertain because of incomplete information and knowledge about models and parameter values. Uncertainty in risk estimates due to these factors may be assessed by conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulations. However, the cost of such analyses may be considerably larger than for less comprehensive assessments of risk uncertainty that are largely qualitative rather than quantitative. This article considers the questions \"How does the decision maker benefit by having available a quantitative estimate of risk uncertainty?,\" and \"Is the additional information gained from a quantitative risk uncertainty analysis worth the added cost?\"