Year
1988
Abstract
This paper addresses a new concept of inter- action between adversary detection and deterrence. It provides an initial evaluation of the effects of these variables on the risk of theft of special nuclear material by an insider adversary and can be extended to the sabotage threat. A steady- state risk equation is used. Exercises with this equation show that deterrence, resulting from the prospect of detection, has a greater ability to reduce the risk than the detection exercise itself. This is true for all cases except those in which the probability of detection is 1. Cases were developed for three different types of adversaries that can be distinguished from one another by the level of detection they are willing to tolerate before they are deterred from attempt- ing a theft. By considering the effects of detec- tion, deterrence, and adversary type, the ground work is laid for designing cost-effective insider threat-protection systems.