NEUTRALIZATION AND SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS

Security forces that can neutralize an attack force are essential to effectively safeguard special nuclear material (SNM) against theft or sabotage. Probability of neutralization, P(N), estimates the likelihood that security forces will win given that security forces interrupt the attackers and begin an armed engagement. Brief Adversary Threat Loss Estimator (BATLE) calculates P(N). BATLE was developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1980. This paper describes a total repackaging of BATLE which will be called the Threat Neutralization Model. New features and capabilities are (1) guidance to the user in setting up the input parameters, (2) faster software, (3) graphical output and sensitivity curves to assist the user in interpreting the results, (4) compatibility with the SAVI vulnerability analysis program, and (5) operation under Microsoft Windows on personal.