Rationalization of the Current Safeguards System Under a Strengthened Regime

Strengthening and streamlining of the IAEA safeguards are being discussed. A new approach ftor safeguards as well as its assessment method is expected to, be proposed. In this paper, a simple matrix analysis method is used, in which the matrix consists of diversion scenarios and special and routine inspections. Firstly, diversion scenarios are analyzed assuming that there m i g h t be undeclared f a c i l i t i e s with undeclared nuclear material. Based on the diversion scenarios derived, diversion detection capabilities expected of the special inspection regime and of' the routine inspection regime are described and two extreme cases are presented as a new safeguards approach: (1) the maximum reduction in routine inspection activities is intended and (2) the current routine inspection is fully utilized. The third approach, which is an intermediate case and reflects the current safeguards, is also discussed. These approaches indicate the possibility of rationalizing the current safeguards system. Finally, the new safeguards regime is discussed and the areas that need further work are suggested.