safeguards Decision Making in the Public and Regulatory Environment, and the Potential Role of Quantitative Approaches

The topic of this session is, \"Decision Theory - Potential for Safeguards Application\". Although this topic could be viewed from a broader perspective, I have chosen to view it from the perspective of the potential of quantitative approaches to support safeguards decision making. Many contemporary nuclear issues are related to the topic, for example, \"How safe is safe,\" and the issue of decisions based on expert judgment as opposed to decisions based on highly structured and quantitative models. The general thesis of this paper is not an unusual one; it is that mathematical models and quantitative approaches can serve as management tools in the decision making process. How much of a role they play, however, is related to the type of decision and the extent to which non-quantifiable factors need to be taken into consideration.